The global economy has a month—eight weeks at most—to avoid a recession, warns top economist

The countdown is on: The global economy has four weeks, eight at most, if it is to avoid plunging into a recession.

That’s the warning from Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, who served as chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council. This week, El-Erian said the globe will “avoid a recession, provided—and here’s the important thing—provided the Straits are reopened in the next four to eight weeks. If they’re not reopened in the next four to eight weeks, it will look very...