NFL straight-up picks, Week 1: How do you plan for opening weekend surprises?

Week 1 is the hardest week to predict on the NFL schedule.

Despite months of analysis and “breaking news” chyrons for big trades and signings, extrapolating each team’s performance based on how they look on paper never quite works out. It’s why there’s only one game in a 16-matchup slate that features a spread greater than six points.

Of course, the other reason these spreads are so tight is because Week 1 is loaded with great matchups. The season opens with an AFC Conference Championship...