The next time the Fed moves it’ll be to hike, according to one economist—whether or not Trump gets his new Fed chair

Until a couple of weeks ago, Wall Street had convinced itself that the Fed’s monetary policy path was heading downward: They expected the base interest rate to continue to “normalize” from its pandemic highs, certainly notching lower than 3.5% to 3.75%, where it stands at today.

Even before President Trump launched military action in Iran, that consensus was being challenged. Inflation is still stubbornly above its 2% target, and while the jobs sector is weak, it has not been alarming enough...