America’s $38 trillion debt crisis is already here. The reckoning comes next

America does not look like a nation in fiscal distress—and that’s exactly the problem.

The S&P 500 has more than doubled in the past five years. Unemployment is at a multi-decade low. Social Security checks are going out.

But moments like these can hide deeper vulnerabilities. Rising tensions in the Middle East, including the conflict with Iran, are a reminder of how quickly economic conditions can shift. A disruption to global oil supplies could send energy prices higher...