AI capex and the ‘wealth effect’ from tech stocks (like Nvidia) now drive one-third of U.S. GDP growth, top analysts say

It’s a good thing that Nvidia’s Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations yesterday, because an increasing portion of U.S. GDP growth is coming from AI capital expenditures (capex) and the “wealth effect” from tech stock gains on consumer spending, according to a new analysis from Pantheon Macroeconomics. 

AI capex “accounted for nearly a fifth of the 2.2% year-over-year increase in headline GDP in Q4,” Pantheon’s Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen said in a note to clients this morning.

In addition...