The most honest prediction for 2026: nobody knows what’s next

Every December, business leaders engage in a familiar ritual: offering predictions for the year ahead. I’ve participated in the ritual myself. But after a year defined by AI volatility, climate shocks, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory curveballs, one thing feels clearer than any forecast: Nobody knows what’s next.

For decades, leaders could predict the future based on the past. Planning cycles were stable. Forecasts aged slower. The pace of change allowed companies to map multi-year strategies.