‘We have not seen this rosy picture’: ADP’s chief economist warns the real economy is pretty different from Wall Street’s bullish outlook

For all the volatility 2025 has endured, things have actually turned out relatively well: The S&P 500 is up by more than 17%, inflation hasn’t spiked despite an onslaught of tariffs, and the unemployment rate has stayed fairly steady.

Analysts and investors are generally feeling positive about 2026 as a result—after all, the U.S. economy’s performance has been above expectations since the pandemic, so why not take a bullish stance in the face of huge fiscal stimulus?

Well, beneath...