Midterm history massively favors Democrats. But they are making a big mistake

Every two years, Washington performs the same ritual. The out-of-power party smells blood, the pundits write the eulogy early and by October the outcome seems like a foregone conclusion. But the history behind that confidence is more complicated than most imagine. What matters most in 2026 is not the electoral math – it’s what the party asking for power actually plans to do if they win.

Over the last 80 years, the president's party has lost seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 18 of 20 midterm elections.