Tantrum of a problem child threatens to cool India's economic engine

India is heading toward a below-average monsoon in 2026, with the IMD retaining its forecast of rainfall at 90% of the long-term average as El Nino conditions strengthen with a 92% probability during the June-September season. An HDFC report warned that weak and uneven rainfall could hurt Kharif crop output, especially paddy, pulses, oilseeds and maize, triggering food inflation and weakening rural demand.