Could the Federal Reserve raise interest rates again despite earlier Fed rate cut signals? Why markets fear a hawkish Jerome Powell on March 18 as Iran war fuels inflation?

Global markets are watching Jerome Powell’s March 18 Federal Reserve meeting very closely. Interest-rate futures now price about a 25% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Oil prices have surged near $100 per barrel after tensions involving Iran disrupted global energy supply routes. The shock is already lifting gasoline prices and inflation expectations. Investors now fear a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Higher oil prices can quickly push up transportation, food, and manufacturing costs.