Goldman just raised recession odds to 25%. Here’s what Trump’s war economy is doing to jobs

Goldman Sachs is sounding a new alarm: the U.S. economy is slipping, and the war in Iran is making it worse. The bank raised its 12-month recession probability to 25% Thursday—up 5 percentage points— after a brutal February jobs report and surging oil prices forced economists to tear up their forecasts.​

It’s a striking signal from Wall Street’s most closely watched research desk, and it comes at a moment when the Trump administration’s twin bets—on tariffs and military engagement in...