In Iran, the US has bitten off more than it can chew

Washington, like many times before, projects its own assumptions onto a political culture it only half understands

It is still far too early to say with confidence when the present phase of the US-Israeli war against Iran will end. Even a deep familiarity with the region does not solve the problem of uncertainty.

Too many decisive variables lie outside any tidy regional model. Decisions in Washington matter. China’s posture matters.