Are Americans getting nearly $4000 in tax refunds as promised by Trump? New IRS data reveals the truth

The average IRS tax refund in 2026 has reached $3,804, according to the latest IRS filing season data. That is 10.2% higher than last year. It brings refunds close to the widely discussed $4,000 tax refund under Trump’s tax plan. The increase links to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The law introduced no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, larger standard deductions, and expanded Child Tax Credit. Tax experts say another factor matters. Many workers overpaid taxes in 2025 due to outdated IRS withholding tables.