Jamie Dimon has a feeling inflation will be the ‘skunk at the party’—and the Iran conflict may already be enough to scare off the Fed for good

When the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran this weekend, prompting a military response across the Middle East, concerns spiralled from the humanitarian cost to the macroeconomic. On the latter, analysts have been carefully watching for signals that Iran may disrupt global oil supply, pushing prices higher as a result.

In the U.S., this would be an unpalatable outcome. Voters, stretched by the pandemic-era price rises and then dogged by concerns about tariff-related hikes, are...