After huge bets on the Iran strikes, do Polymarket and Kalshi face a trust crisis?

It’s a number that Donald Trump’s business-focused mind would surely be proud of: Nearly $530 million was wagered on Polymarket trying to predict the timing of when the United States and Israel would strike Iran. And at least half a dozen gamblers struck it rich after they lucked out.

Or did they? A number of the biggest winners from wagering on the Iran strikes had created their accounts that same month and bought their stakes in the trade long before the bombs were unloaded. It’s similar...