Who will win in Gorton and Denton? What the results of every byelection since 2010 tell us

The fight is on for the Gorton and Denton byelection on February 26. It is a three-way contest between Labour, Reform and the Greens. According to Electoral Calculus, a site which runs regular MRP (multi-level regression post stratification) surveys, Reform will win with 32% of the vote, the Greens will come second on 23.3% and Labour third with 22.6%.

There is however a problem with MRP polls. They produce results that are far more variable than can be accounted for by standard sources of errors in surveys.