Further Thoughts on the January Jobs Report

Photo by the blowup

Like most analysts, I was surprised by the January jobs report. It was definitely stronger than I expected. Now that I have had a day to reflect on it, I thought I would share some thoughts. Briefly, I will deal with four issues:

+ Was it fake? (quick answer, no)

+ What does the establishment data tell us about the economy?

+ What does the household data tell us about the labor market?

+ Are there reasons to discount the January data?

Is it Fake?