Budget 2026: A straight and narrow pathway, with heavy lifting still ahead

Anachronistic statistical methods continue to obscure estimates of real GDP growth, while slowing nominal growth and 25 mths of falling core inflation (excluding gold) signal persistent, and possibly widening, excess capacity. Policymakers have responded by rationalising GST, implementing new labour codes and creating the framework for deregulation. While these reforms mark progress, their scale seems modest when set against the entrenched challenges faced by private consumption and investment.