‘I just don’t have a good feeling about this’: Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted and everyone’s now looking at the wrong alarm

Analysts’ favourite gauge of the U.S. economy’s health comes from data. And at the moment, the numbers look OK … ish. Hiring is down, but unemployment hasn’t spiked, inflation isn’t ballooning (as feared) because of tariffs, and consumer spending is holding up remarkably well.

So why does reality feel so gloomy?

Economist Claudia Sahm is an expert (if not the expert) on the conditions that presage a recession and how policymakers should react as a result. She is the creator of...