Why prediction markets may be bad for your wallet—and your mental health

Prediction markets are all the rage right now. Weekly trading volume on prediction platforms just surpassed $2 billion, and apps like Polymarket are being treated as the “next big thing” in consumer finance and entertainment. These platforms are designed to gamify uncertainty by exploiting the same cognitive biases as gambling and day-trading, quietly pushing users toward overspending, emotional volatility, and compulsive checking.

It’s easy to see why people are drawn to them. Prediction markets feel smarter than reckless betting...