The Horn Of Africa In 2026: Managed Volatility, Contested Sovereignty, And Adaptive Multipolarity – OpEd

The coming year of 2026 appears to maintain the same off-balance state of the region as in previous years. This could only be described as managed volatility i.e. a complex situation of persistent crises, which are being selectively managed and negotiated, thus maintaining the same status quo without leading to complete breakdown of the region or an outright solution of its problems, as represented by fragmentation of the major states of the region (Ethiopia and Somalia, in the main) and state wars (Ethiopia and Eritrea).