Polymarket traders doubt there will be a recession. We asked prediction gurus if you should listen.

Polymarket and Kalshi traders' perceived probability of a US recession this year has plunged in recent months.

Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BI

• Polymarket and Kalshi traders' perceived probability of a recession this year has plunged recently.
• Both prediction markets surged in popularity after users called Trump's election win in November.
• These tools have advantages as well as drawbacks, prediction gurus told BI.

Polymarket and Kalshi users called Donald Trump's election victory.