Why Israel-Iran tensions might not raise prices at the pump as much as feared (for now)

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The unexpected attack by Israel on Iran, a major oil-producing nation, may undermine anaemic global economic growth and hinder central banks’ ability to cope in an already uncertain market.

Iran exports up to 2 million barrels of oil and refined petroleum products per day (million barrels per day – mbd). Due to long-standing sanctions, most of this oil is sold to China at discounted prices.

Normally, a sudden loss of the Iranian exports (equivalent to around 2% of global oil supply) would trigger panic.