100 years of stock-market history suggests the S&P 500 could fall another 19%

Lewis Krauskopf/Reuters

• BNP Paribas warns of 19% downside for the S&P 500 despite the recent market recovery.
• Investors are optimistic, but tariffs could still impact earnings, the bank said.
• In a recessionary scenario, the bank said the market could fall another 35%.

Investors cheered on a stronger-than-expected April jobs report on Friday, but a new report from BNP Paribas suggests the pain might not be over just yet for stocks.

In a note to clients on Friday...