How much will an iPhone cost after Trump’s tariffs? A lot more. Or maybe not.

The markets are crashing, businesses large and small are worried about their future, and the world is increasingly looking toward a global recession. But most people I talk to about this chaotic economic landscape want to know one thing: “How much is my next iPhone going to cost?”

They are asking for a very good reason: The predominant countries where Apple makes many of its products—China and Vietnam (and to a lesser extent, India)—are the ones being hit the hardest by President Donald Trump’s tariffs at sky-high rates of 54%...