Watch this key threshold for the S&P 500 on Wednesday to gauge if stocks will keep rallying in 2025

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• The S&P 500 must close above 5,881.63 on Wednesday to signal a bullish market for 2025.
• The 'first 5 trading day rule' suggests positive early stock returns lead to a strong year.
• Since 1950, an S&P 500 gain of 1% or more in the first five trading days has led to an average annual return of 16%.

The S&P 500 must close above 5,881.63 on Wednesday in order to flash a bullish signal that stocks can keep rallying for the rest of year.