Stock Market and Budget Projections: Do the Numbers Add Up?

It’s been a while since we’ve had Mr. Arithmetic here, but with Donald Trump coming back to the White House, we may need him around. The immediate reason for consulting his expertise is the projections for big stock market gains in 2025.

It seems the median forecast is for the S&P 500 to rise by roughly 10 percent over the course of 2025 from its year-end 2024 level. Many are forecasting considerably larger gains. Basically, the story is that all the good news for corporate profits...