Two connected words of the year for 2025: “Protectionism” and “China”

LOTS OF FOCUS has been on the Trump effect on the US trading relationship with China. But we need to think more broadly than this. I see a significant risk that next year we will see trade tensions also increasing between other countries and China for the reasons described below.

Here Is a slide, from the ICIS Supply & Demand Database, showing China’s percentage shares of global capacities for some polymers in 2009 (the beginning of China’s giant economic stimulus programme) versus 2021 (the Evergrande Turning Point) and 2025.