Why Did Donald Trump Win When Polls Claimed Kamala Harris Was Leading?

Donald Trump is an impossible man to predict — and if anyone’s learned that lesson the hard way, it’s American pollsters. “We are headed for more disaster,” Stanford’s Jon Krosnick warned in October about the numbers ticking steadily upward for Harris. A surprising number of articles leading up to the election even seemed to be preparing us for the predictions to be wrong. In the end, despite the changes so many firms claimed to make to avoid the embarrassments of 2016 and 2020, Krosnick was right.