A recession could be this election’s ‘October surprise’ 

Could a recession be the October surprise that changes the election outlook?  

It would be bad news for Kamala Harris. The economy, as always, is the top issue for voters, and a further jump in unemployment, which has already bounced up to 4.2 percent from 3.7 percent this year, would not help her chances of winning.   

It would certainly be a surprise, because investors and economists today are almost unanimous believing we are in for a “soft landing.” The betting is that...