It's getting harder to make big leaps at the frontier of AI. There will be huge winners and losers.

Halil Sagirkaya/Anadolu via Getty Images; Meta; Reka; Mistral, Anthropic, X/Grok; Chelsea Jia Feng/BI

• Token prices, a key yardstick for AI costs, have plummeted.
• There are many capable AI models now, and they're pretty similar. That's pushed prices down.
• The AI frontier is now "commodity," Guillermo Rauch, CEO of AI startup Vercel, said.

Late last month, Elad Gil, one of the world's top AI investors, tweeted out a chart.

It shows the cost of "tokens,"...