UBS increases US recession probability to 25 per cent

UBS Global Wealth Management has raised the odds of a US recession to 25 per cent from 20 per cent, citing weakness stemming from softer jobs growth and the July unemployment data which stoked fears of a downturn.

The brokerage in a note released this week maintained its base case of a soft landing for the economy with consumer spending broadly determining the trajectory of growth; however, it called the outlook “cloudy”.

Earlier this month, J.P. Morgan raised the odds of US...