A widely followed recession signal just flashed, but its inventor says a downturn isn't guaranteed

iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BI

• The July jobs report triggered the Sahm rule, but its creator said the US isn't in a recession.
• However, she is worried about unemployment and high interest rates.
• Economists like Sahm think the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates.

A recession indicator with a near-perfect record is flashing — but its creator told Business Insider this could be one of the rare times it's wrong.

"The US economy is still growing," said Claudia Sahm...